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Betting Moneyline Vs Spread

Moneyline Strategy: Betting Favorites vs Betting Underdogs. If you’ve gotten this far, then you know moneyline odds have favorites and underdogs but experienced bettors don’t solely use potential return as their compass for picking a winner. Regardless of payout, the main goal for ANY moneyline bet is to win.

  1. Simply put, covering the spread is used by oddsmakers to spark interest in the other team involved, where the odds are skewed, offering the underdog as a viable betting option; in a moneyline bet for example. How point spread work.
  2. The moneyline on the Bengals is +150 which means that a $100 bet on the Bengals would win $150, if the Bengals win the game. Of course when you bet $100 on the money line bet and win $150, you will receive $250 on payout. Spread betting or point spread betting.

We’re about to make the transition from the time when baseball is the primary sport people are paying attention to to when football takes over. That means that sports bettors will be making the transition from primarily betting using the moneyline to primarily using the point spread. Most people seem to prefer the point spread – it’s certainly more calmly discussed and understood – but I always have and likely always will prefer the moneyline. It’s an interesting exercise to look at the benefits and weaknesses of both kinds of bets:

Benefits of Point Spreads

Cost is almost always constant – For the most part you know that each point spread bet you make is going to cost you -110. Sometimes it might cost -120 to be on a popular side, and you may find -105 or even +100 if you are lucky, but the prices you will pay operate within a small range regardless of whether you are going to be betting primarily on favorites, underdogs, or a mix of the two. That makes budgeting easier, makes it easier to keep track of meaningful records, and makes it less risky to play on heavy favorites than it is on the moneyline.

Harder to make a bad bet – The betting public generally likes the favorites. As a result, the odds on favorites are often skewed in favor of the books. If you bet on a point spread favorite that doesn’t have any value the worst you are out is whatever you have bet at -110 or -120. If you are on a heavy favorite on the moneyline, though, you might be facing a price of -250 or -300. That’s far more damaging to the bankroll if things go poorly, and far less beneficial f things go well.

Easier for most people to understand – The moneyline is actually quite simple, but for most people who are new to betting the point spread is easier to embrace and become comfortable with. That’s most likely because the point spread is discussed so often in popular culture, and because the media is increasingly discussing the bet.

Key numbers are useful – The concept of key numbers – the spreads that are most commonly hit in the results of football games like 3 and 7 – are powerful and useful in handicapping. Key numbers are not applicable to the moneyline.

Middling – Even casual bettors can occasionally happen upon middling situations – situations where the odds are set up so that you can bet on both teams at different sports book in the same game and ensure a great result either way – either a very small loss or a very large win. Though theoretically possible with the moneyline this tool is far less common.

Can easily have a strong winning percentage and still lose money with moneyline – As a general rule if you win 55 percent of your games betting on the point spread you are going to make some money. If you are betting moneyline favorites, though, you could easily hit 65 percent of your picks and still lose money.

Benefits of Moneyline

Just have to pick a winner – For the teams that are involved in a game the only goal they care about is winning the game. They don’t care how much they win it by, or how many points the two teams combine to score. It’s all about the scoreboard. Moneyline betting is only about who wins as well. It can be pretty or it can be ugly, but a win is a win. By betting on the moneyline, then, you are associating yourself with the same goal that the team you are betting on has, and you don’t have to be an amateur psychologist to think about motivation nearly as much. When you bet a favorite on the point spread you have to think not just about who is going to win, but when your team is likely to take the lead, how hard they will try once they get that lead, what personnel moves getting the lead may cause, and so on. Moneyline betting involves fewer variables, and simplicity is a good thing. The flipside, of course, is that moneyline underdogs have to win the game, while point spread underdogs have a cushion. I’ll give up that cushion for the payoff as we’ll discuss next.

The beauty of underdogs – There is nothing better than picking underdogs winners on the moneyline. What makes it so nice? Simply, you get back more money than you bet. On small underdogs you might get $110 or $120 for every $100 you bet, and for serious underdogs you can sometimes get two, three or four times as much as you bet. That’s a good thing for several reasons. First, because you get back more than you bet you can make a profit even if you lose more bets than you win. That’s always a good thing. For example, betting moneyline underdogs is great when you are betting two games on a day and you split them. On the point spread going 1-1 on the day would mean a small loss, but on the moneyline it would mean a small profit. Profits are better than losses in my eyes. Besides that, the biggest advantage of moneyline underdogs is psychological. I like that when you bet them and win you get nice payoffs, and you can get especially nice payoffs when you win all of your bets on a day. Successful sports betting is all about the right mindset, and I find it easier to maintain a successful state of mind this way.

Fairer parlays – The odds books offer for point spread parlays should be criminal. The odds they set are at a fixed level, and that level is far lower than the actual mathematical risk of making the bets. Over the long term, then, the expectation is that even a good bettor would lose on parlays. They are a profit factory for books just like roulette or blackjack is for casinos. Using moneylines parlays are calculated simply by multiplying the risk of the bets you are parlaying together. It’s a bigger debate whether parlays are good bets, but there is no denying that parlays using moneylines are a much fairer bet that are conceptually and mathematically easier to show a profit with over the long term.

More sports handicapping articles :

With the AFC and NFC Championship games slated for Sunday, the 2020 NFL season has reached its final two matchups before Super Bowl Sunday. It’s the second-biggest stage in the sport, and it has already generated a ton of betting activity. Bettors will be looking back at the 19 weeks that led up to this final four weekend, looking for any angles they can find against the spread, on the moneyline, or on the over/under totals.

Every week, this column provides a detailed breakdown of our favorite bets, weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere sneak preview of all that BetQL offers. Check us out now to reveal our full betting predictions for every game of the conference championship round, including projections and best bet ratings from our NFL Best Bet Model.

All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DFS: Top values FanDuel DraftKings

Conference Championship Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at Green Bay Packers

My favorite spread play of the week would be to buy a half-point and take the Bills +3.5 at Kansas City, but if I have to take a spread at its current position, I feel compelled to go against 65 percent of sharp bettors and go with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers getting +3.5 in Green Bay.

My longtime friend Steve has been a loyal Tampa Bay fan for 20-plus years, and he hates this pick because of the Bucs’ dismal track record. “They’re going to get beat bad this weekend,” Steve said. “That’s what they do.”

But they haven’t had the greatest and most clutch quarterback of all-time under center until this season. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve never been a huge Tom Brady fanboy despite my New England lineage, but I do recognize his contributions to the Patriots’ dynasties, and to the NFL as a whole. The man never gets flustered on the biggest stages. He competes until the very end.

The Bucs may not win Sunday, but I simply do not see them losing by more than a field goal. They forced four turnovers and held Drew Brees and the Saints to 294 total yards (190 passing) in their 30-20 divisional-round victory. They put up 507 offensive yards (365 passing) against a good Washington defense one week prior, good for a 31-23 wild card win. Brady has thrown 16 touchdowns and just one interception over the course of Tampa’s past six games.

Let’s also not forget that the Packers fell to the Bucs 38-10 in the first Battle of the Bays this season in Week 6. Brady went 17-of-27 for 166 yards and two TDs that week, finishing with a 104.9 QB rating. Tampa logged five sacks for 53 yards and forced Packers QB Aaron Rodgers to throw two interceptions. Pack running back Aaron Jones managed just 15 yards on 10 carries. Green Bay scored only one touchdown in the loss.

That game was obviously an outlier in Rodgers’ fantastic season, for which he will likely garner MVP honors. However, Rodgers has had his fair share of struggles in big moments, particularly in the postseason. Will All-Pro wideout Davante Adams once again be stymied by Tampa’s underrated secondary? Will the Bucs’ defensive line disrupt Rodgers in the pocket? Will Devin White maintain his borderline-inhuman rate of productivity? These are all distinct possibilities.

Betting Moneyline Vs Spread

BetQL’s NFL Best Bet Model puts three stars on the Bucs covering the 3.5 points. It also points out an interesting trend: Tampa Bay has gone 7-1 against defensive units allowing over 5.6 yards per play this season. Green Bay has allowed just over 5.5 yards per play in 2020.

Ultimately, I have the Packers winning 27-24, but it will be a wild ride to the finish line and nobody will be breathing easy until the final whistle.

Betting Moneyline Vs Spread Week 9

Conference Championship Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week

Kansas City Chiefs (-170) vs. Buffalo Bills

It’s so difficult to pick against the Buffalo, who I have touted as a breakout contender since before this crazy season started. Josh Allen has grown by leaps and bounds in front of all of our eyes and is on a collision-course with history in a fantastic run of prime-time conquests. But alas, he’s not Patrick Mahomes, and the Bills just do not measure up to the dominating depth chart of the defending champions.

If Mahomes clears the concussion protocol and plays Sunday, it’s simply impossible to pick against Kansas City on the moneyline. The question marks around the health of the reigning Super Bowl MVP are the only reason these odds are so good. Otherwise, we would likely be seeing KC +170 instead of -170.

Winners make winning plays, and Mahomes has proved time and time again that he’s the best in the NFL on the big stage. The Chiefs finished the regular season with the best record, somehow improving upon its 2019 offense. Kansas City also greatly benefited from the hire of Steve Spagnuolo as defensive coordinator. The Chiefs cracked the top 10 in fewest points allowed this season and finished fifth in the NFL in interceptions.

Spread Vs Moneyline Vs Total

The majestic union of Allen and star Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs has been a fantastic story this season, and they are undoubtedly going to be wreaking havoc on the league for years to come. That said, Kansas City has far too many playmakers, including the always-explosive wideout Tyreek Hill and perhaps the best pass-catching tight end ever in Travis Kelce. The Bills will soon get their time in the sun, but I just don’t think it’s this year.

Conference Championship Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week

Betting Moneyline Vs Spread

Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OVER 51.5

Spread Moneyline Total

BetQL likes the Bills-Chiefs game to go UNDER 54 points, but let’s face it: It’s more fun to bet on the OVER in the playoffs. Thus, we are rooting for a barnburner in the Rodgers-Brady showdown on Sunday afternoon.

Betting moneyline vs spread odds

Betting Moneyline Vs Spread Over Under

Statistics are on our side here. The Buccaneers have scored at least 30 points in their past five contests and hit 44 twice in that span. Green Bay has hit 30-plus in seven of its past eight games, while reaching 40 twice. The Bucs are the third-highest scoring team in the NFL with the seventh-most yards on the season. The Pack are the top-scoring team in the NFL and produced the fifth-most yards.

Betting Moneyline Vs Spread

These defenses have both been good this season, but their quarterbacks have been better. This will be a battle of two cagey veterans, and it seems highly unlikely that either will let it become a defensive slugfest. There’s always a risk going with the crowd -- 79 percent of sharp money is on the OVER in this one -- but investing in the points potential of two future first-ballot Hall-of-Fame QBs seems smart to me.

Betting Moneyline Vs Spread Odds

For more betting analysis and information, head over to BetQL and check out our model’s best bets, sharp data, and much more for every playoff game! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL!